LBMA: Fuse Meets Keg
A follow-up to LBMA: De Facto Default
THE UNRAVELING BEGINS
The cracks in the LBMA are now undeniable. In LBMA: De Facto Default, we exposed the early warning signs of a system under stress—now the unraveling accelerates. Physical gold is fleeing, inventories are draining, and the system is running on fumes. But this isn’t just a slow-motion collapse -- it’s a full-blown unraveling. The players have lost control, and that’s the real problem.
What follows is a hypothesis; we play the odds. The fundamentals (the fuse) have been burning for decades, while the technical structure (the keg) has been packed with leverage, suppression, and mountains of gold paper -- fueling systemic fragility. When these two forces collide, the gold market won’t just transition -- it will detonate.
THE FUSE -- FUNDAMENTALS
Fiat has a perfect track record throughout history – they’ve all settled at zero. Money systems change. The only question is what comes next.
The buzzword is “unsustainable” -- global debt levels have reached the point of no return.
Central banks aren’t waiting -- they’re stockpiling gold at record levels.
BRICS nations are fast-tracking de-dollarization. The simple, popular trade: selling US Treasuries to buy gold.
Confidence in fiat currencies is deteriorating. Fiat has been in a bear market for 50 years (thank you, inflation) and it’s picking up speed.
When trust erodes, collapse accelerates.
THE KEG -- TECHNICALS
The paper gold market runs on (at least) 100x leverage -- just 1 physical ounce backs 100 paper claims.
COMEX & LBMA use derivatives to suppress price discovery, propping up the illusion of stability.
Rehypothecation -- using the same gold as collateral multiple times -- has turned the system into a ticking time bomb.
When physical demand exceeds deliverable supply, the system unravels.
BREAKAGE
This system isn’t built to withstand physical gold stress. When the illusion of paper gold shatters, the scramble for real metal won’t just be a market event, it will reshape the global financial order. The system is breaking, and when it does, everything changes. The only question left: what happens next? That’s where we go from here. Stay tuned.